Aluminium Ingot Prices, Monitor, Demand & Supply | ChemAnalyst

 



During the fourth quarter of 2023, Aluminium Ingot prices in North America experienced a downward trend influenced by various factors. Initially, in October, Aluminum Alloy ingot prices in the USA declined due to global macroeconomic pressures, including inflationary trends and construction delays in China. Increased stocks in domestic warehouses compounded the situation, with lower sales further contributing to the downturn. Despite expectations, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) failed to stimulate demand, while a UAW strike in the automotive sector dampened demand further, affecting the economic landscape across the country.

 

In early November, prices rebounded slightly as production shifted south, leading to reduced inventory levels. However, uncertainty loomed as potential federal interest rate hikes led to hesitancy in placing orders. Efforts in recycling partially mitigated consumption, and international cooperation on can-capture equipment initiatives emerged. Despite these efforts, the IRA's limited impact on demand persisted, alongside concerns over raw material shortages in Guinea, which contributed to an upward price trend.

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 December witnessed another decline in prices, driven by ongoing global macroeconomic challenges, persistent high inflation rates, and anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Despite firm orders from domestic downstream industries amidst a historically downturned market, overall uncertainty continued to prevail in the USA's Aluminum Ingot market. The closing price of Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) DEL Alabama Port (USA) for Q4 of 2023 stood at USD 4201/MT.

The final quarter of 2023 (Q4) saw a bearish trend in the European Aluminium Ingot market, characterized by ample supply and subdued demand. In October, the German Aluminum Ingot market experienced a slight downturn driven by decreased demand in the automotive and construction sectors. This decline was attributed to persistent challenges faced by German automobile manufacturers, such as high inflation and intense competition from Chinese and American counterparts. Manufacturers grappled with excess inventory as they struggled to meet demand levels seen before 2019. Additionally, plans for solar energy infrastructure enhancements, originally slated for October, were deferred, further dampening Aluminum Ingot demand.

Moving into mid-Q4, November saw stable prices as demand shifted away from the automotive industry towards other sectors. Norsk Hydro voiced concerns about increasing competition from the Chinese electric vehicle industry impacting downstream manufacturing in Germany. The onset of winter and the Christmas holidays led to further price declines, particularly in construction-related activities. The European spot market observed a 7.5% year-on-year rise in aluminum output, contributing to elevated domestic inventory levels. Despite market uncertainties and potential federal interest rate hikes, consistent buyer orders helped maintain stability in the German Aluminum Alloy Ingot market.

In December, prices declined once more due to ongoing challenges in the automotive and construction sectors, excess inventory, and delayed solar energy infrastructure projects. Despite these obstacles, domestic downstream industries continued to place robust orders amidst the backdrop of historical price fluctuations. The latest price of Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) FD-Bad Berleburg in Germany for Q4 stood at USD 3070/MT.

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